al-Qaida issues nuclear warning to Pakistan

WASHINGTON - Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's right hand man, released an audio tape Wednesday telling Pakistan its nuclear weapons are at risk.

In the 9-minute audio tape, he claimed the U.S. is seeking control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.

Ironically, the warning comes amid new evidence al-Qaida and the Taliban are engaged in an active search for the weapons.

A familiar uneasiness has crept over U.S. intelligence assets operating in the region, because they too have been looking for them - but with little success.

A former U.S. intelligence official says he received regular reports in recent months from "trusted agents" indicating they have been seeking to help the Pakistani government protect the weapons, but have received little or no cooperation.

However, Zawahiri's for-your-own-good warning has run into a huge credibility problem.

On June 21, somewhere in the dusty, arid mountains of Afghanistan, senior al-Qaida militant Mustafa Abu al-Yazid told al Jazeera television that if al-Qaida could get its hands on them, "they would use Pakistan's nuclear weapons to attack the U.S."

Aware of the threat, Husain Haqqani, Pakistan's ambassador to the U.S., says, "For one thing, nuclear weapons are not boxes of candy that are lying around and somebody will take them and take them away."

"If the Taliban are going to take over the Pakistani state, that is when people should be concerned - if that were ever to happen - and that is not likely to happen because the Pakistani people do not support the Taliban in large numbers," Haqqani says.

A former high ranking U.S. counter proliferation official with deep knowledge of the situation says, "The concern in the U.S. about the stability of Pakistan's nuclear weapons rises all the way to the top."

Not only is there great concern among U.S. officials about long-standing al-Qaida efforts to find the weapons, but the lack of trust between Washington and Islamabad.

"The Pakistanis accepted material assistance from the U.S. after 2001 to help secure and account for their nuclear weapons, but since have refused to disclose where the material is being used or critical information about the location and status of their weapons," the former official adds.

A Pakistani government spokesman says, "Pakistan has no agreement to share information with officials of foreign governments related to the whereabouts of our nuclear weapons."

But Zawahiri, whom experts say is likely receiving current intelligence about U.S.-Pakistani relations, appears to have hit a nerve because a number of media reports from Pakistan's political right have highlighted the long-standing distrust between the U.S. and Pakistan.

In his latest message - a rare English diatribe - Zawahiri says fear of jihad is driving U.S. efforts to gain control of Pakistan's nuclear weapons.

"This is why the Western Crusade, headed by America and served by the puppet rulers of our countries with their armies, security organizations, media, judiciary and jails, aims at halting the escalating jihadi tide in the Muslim World. In Pakistan in particular, the Crusade aims at eradicating the growing jihadi nucleus in order to break up this nuclear-capable country, and transform it into tiny fragments, loyal to and dependent on the neo-Crusaders," Zawahiri says.

The former U.S. counter proliferation official - who did not want to be identified because of the "deeply troubling nature of the situation" - says U.S. officials are "constantly worried that in the middle of the night they'll get a call about a missing nuclear weapon in Pakistan."

But Haqqani addressed the concern saying, "Everybody in the United States government who knows about this matter, you will find to have a very positive view."

"This is one of those questions that is generally asked by those who do not know the technical details of how nuclear programs are kept safe under a structured command and control system. Pakistan has a very structured command and control system, and key people in the U.S. government who need to know, know that the Pakistani nuclear program is safe," Haqqani says.

Pakistan is believed to have between 60 to 100 nuclear warheads. They are protected by a secret and compartmentalized security process that is thought to involve several tiered layers, requiring multiple individuals to sign off on their use.

In the 1970s, Pakistan began a clandestine nuclear weapons program under the direction of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan. The program was developed in part because of India's nuclear test in 1974. By 1986, Pakistan had produced enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon and went to conduct five nuclear tests in 1998.

It was discovered in 2003 that Khan, who later confessed, had given or sold nuclear technology to several rogue elements, including Libya. That set off alarm bells in the U.S. intelligence community.

The alarms ring louder than ever today, according to the former U.S. intelligence official because, "we just don't how safe they are or in what condition."

Haqqani says, "Pakistan's nuclear program, in fact, is as safely handled as the nuclear program of any of the other developed countries in the world."

But mistakes can happen anywhere.

In August 2007, a U.S. Air Force B-52 bomber was mistakenly armed with six nuclear-tipped cruise missiles and flown from Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota to Barksdale Air Force Base to Louisiana.

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