STEVE PEOPLES
Associated Press
PORTSMOUTH, N.H. (AP) — One set of elections ends in early November and another begins when presidential hopefuls cross the unofficial starting line in the 2016 race for the White House.
With control of the Senate at stake this fall, the months leading up to the midterm elections offered a clearer window on a crowd of potential presidential candidates already jockeying for position from Nevada to New Hampshire.
Look for these would-be contenders to road-test rhetoric, expand coalitions and consider their own political flaws, and keep close watch on each other.
Democrats want Hillary Rodham Clinton to carry their flag. The Republican field remains crowded and wide open.
The jousting will be most apparent in states such as New Hampshire, home to the first-in-the-nation presidential primary and the site of closely watched races for governor, Senate and the House.
Whichever party controls the Senate after the Nov. 4 balloting — Republicans need a six-seat gain to win the majority — will say much about what President Barack Obama can accomplish in the final two years in office and the tone of the race to succeed him.
“The end of the 2014 general election does, in a sense, commence a beginning of the presidential primary phase,” says New Hampshire Republican operative Rich Killion. “But an informal, unofficial opening to the process already is underway.”
A look at potential 2016 candidates and what to expect this fall:
DEMOCRATS:
CLINTON
The former secretary of state’s every word will be parsed for her plans. But Clinton has been offering plenty of hints that she’s preparing for a second run.
Her biggest splash could come in Iowa, where she’ll join her husband, former President Bill Clinton, at Sen. Tom Harkin’s annual steak fry fundraiser.
The event is billed as a tribute to Harkin, but it will generate wide interest because of her first visit to Iowa since she lost the 2008 caucuses.
Hillary Clinton has limited her campaign activity since leaving the State Department, but this fall should give voters a more concrete look at how she might present her candidacy. Her allies are wary of a “third Obama term” label, so Clinton’s speeches and appearances offer a chance to distinguish herself from the president.
She will raise money for Democrats’ four major campaign committees and could help several Senate campaigns where Obama remains a liability.
JOE BIDEN
The vice president has not ruled out a third presidential bid and expects to be an active surrogate for Democrats this fall. Whether he’d challenge Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination is the big question.
Biden headlined high-profile meetings with young voters, liberals and African-Americans. He has raised money for congressional candidates in Nevada and governors in Connecticut and Illinois. Biden is expected to visit New Hampshire, where he maintains ties to party activists, and Iowa, where Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley faces Joni Ernst in one of the top Senate races.
OTHER DEMOCRATS
Several Democrats are building for a national campaign in case Clinton doesn’t run.
Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley has been the most active, raising money for candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire and traveling to states with active midterm contests.
Former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb recently traveled to Iowa. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, plans to visit Iowa in mid-September. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has denied interest in the White House but would face pressure to run if Clinton doesn’t.
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REPUBLICANS:
JEB BUSH
More than seven years out of office, the former Florida governor has been quieter than some of his GOP colleagues as he focuses on his private business dealings.
He recently said he would begin a more aggressive schedule to help Republicans this fall. He is set to headline a Florida fundraiser in late September to benefit top Republican Senate candidates, a group expected to include Cory Gardner in Colorado, Ernst in Iowa, Monica Wehby in Oregon and Tom Cotton in Arkansas.
RAND PAUL
The Kentucky senator has been perhaps the most aggressive prospective candidate.
The ophthalmologist recently squeezed in a mission to perform eye surgeries in Guatemala — and invited news organizations to cover it — between stops in Iowa and South Carolina. He has confirmed September appearances in California and Virginia, and October trips to North Carolina and New Hampshire, among dozens more possible stops.
The libertarian-leaning Paul, the son of former Texas Rep. Ron Paul, is trying to build on the small but passionate coalition assembled by his father. The elder Paul wasn’t taken seriously by many Republicans, but Rand Paul has emerged as a leading GOP voice on foreign and domestic policy.
CHRIS CHRISTIE
Working to move past a bridge-clogging scandal that shadowed his plans, the New Jersey governor continues an aggressive travel schedule this fall as chairman of the Republican Governors Association.
Having already visited New Hampshire, he has announced a trip to South Carolina, where he will have a chance to test his message with more conservative voters. He’s also planning trips to Ohio, Wisconsin and Florida.
Christie will lead a delegation of New Jersey business and political leaders to Mexico in early September, giving him a chance to bolster his appeal with Latino voters and burnish his foreign policy credentials. At home, Christie will release a budget plan that is sure to draw fury from Democrats and union leaders.
RICK PERRY
Considering a second presidential bid, the Texas governor was facing challenges related to his disastrous 2012 campaign even before his recent felony indictments.
His advisers suggest the charges could actually help his political prospects, and he has pressed ahead with visits to Iowa, Washington, D.C., New Hampshire, and more.
Perry heads to Iowa in early September shortly before a weeklong economic tour across Asia. He will turn his attention to helping Republican governors win re-election when he returns.
He plans to be in Europe in October.
OTHER REPUBLICANS
The possible GOP field also includes Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker hopes to use his re-election test this fall as a springboard into 2016.
Others must convince skeptical party leaders that they have mainstream appeal. This group includes conservative Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
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Associated Press writers Jill Colvin in Newark, New Jersey, and Michael J. Mishak in Miami contributed to this report.
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