How to know when to invest in new technology

When it comes to personal technology, I’m a gadget geek. I do the exact opposite of what I tell my clients to do — I buy it, and I buy it fast. However, when it comes to vetting business technology, I watch and I wait.

Part of my evaluation process involves a graphical tool developed and used by technology research and advisory firm Gartner — Gartner’s Technology Hype Cycle. The cycle represents the stages most technologies go through before they become useful.

At its simplest, the tool is fun to use for looking at where certain technologies lie in the cycle. At its most complex state, the tool can provide insight into whether or not you should invest in specific technologies for your organization.


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Gartner’s Technology Hype Cycle is released annually, and the graphic illustrates the five phases of a technology’s life cycle, including:

1. Technology trigger

A technology is invented that gets the attention of the media — and the hype begins.

2. Peak of inflated expectations

Early media attention reports successes — and failures. This is where the disillusionment starts to set in.

3. Trough of disillusionment

Interest wanes as the technology fails to deliver on some of its promises. To survive, providers and producers of the technology must respond to the criticisms made by early adopters and improve the technology. If this happens the technology starts to climb the slope of enlightenment.

4. Slope of enlightenment

Additional ways the technology can benefit organizations become more widely understood. Second and third-generation products appear.

5. Plateau of productivity

Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing legitimate providers are more clearly defined. The technology’s broad market applications and relevance are understood by business leaders and the general population.

Cloud computing has moved through the Technology Hype Cycle, and witnessing the journey has been educational. The media quickly latched on to the cloud and created a hype frenzy that prolonged the cloud’s stay in the peak of inflated expectations stage.

Then, last year, Gartner moved cloud computing into the trough of disillusionment phase. Currently, we are seeing the cloud climb the slope of enlightenment as private and hosted clouds are refined and customized. Soon, the cloud will hit the plateau of productivity with widespread, mainstream adoption.

Instead of simply following the news, tracking Google mentions, or polling the greeter at Best Buy to track tech trends, consult the Technology Hype Cycle . It will educate you about how new technologies are emerging, evolving, and gaining acceptance. This knowledge — comprehensively understanding where a technology currently is in the cycle and when it is expected to move to the next phase —can inform large budget and business decisions. It is, indeed, powerful.

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