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And the Emmy winner is ... our best guesses

Thursday - 9/19/2013, 12:28pm  ET

This image released by AMC shows Bryan Cranston, left, and Aaron Paul in a scene from "Breaking Bad." Paul is nominated for best supporting actor in a drama series for his role as Jesse Pinkman. The Academy of Television Arts & Sciences' Emmy ceremony will be hosted by Neil Patrick Harris. It will air Sept. 22 on CBS. (AP Photo/AMC, Frank Ockenfels )

FRAZIER MOORE
AP Television Writers

Emmy Awards crystal-ball gazing was so much easier in the old days, circa the last few years: ABC's "Modern Family" would be honored as best comedy series and a cable show, "Homeland" or "Mad Men" or such, would win best drama.

"Modern Family" may earn its fourth consecutive trophy at Sunday's ceremony. But the drama picture is murkier because of Netflix's "House of Cards," the first online program to be nominated for top series honors under a 2007 Emmy rule allowing digital contenders.

It's as big a revolution as the 1993 best comedy series nod for HBO's "The Larry Sanders Show," which came after the TV academy opened its arms to cable as well as broadcast fare.

"We didn't believe it would take as long as six years-plus for the world to start looking to this new explosion of original content," said Rob Barnett, who moved his career from cable (MTV, VH1) to online as founder and CEO of My Damn Channel. "But it's clearly happening."

Whether "House of Cards" will actually claim the trophy is another matter. It took more than a decade before a cable show, HBO's "Sex and the City," prevailed as a top series winner; in an impatient world, might "House of Cards" compress the time frame?

Or it is possible that astute Emmy voters smacked their foreheads, realized they had yet to crown AMC's "Breaking Bad" as TV's best drama and made amends?

They should have, we say in unison. Here's what else we're predicting for the 8 p.m. EDT ceremony on CBS hosted by Neil Patrick Harris -- who, no Ouija board needed, will be reliably outstanding.

DRAMA SERIES:

LYNN ELBER

Should win: "Breaking Bad." At the height of its power, and Walter White knows where you live.

Will win: "House of Cards." Ambitious politician trumps ambitious drug dealer in Washington-bedazzled Hollywood.

FRAZIER MOORE

Should win: "Breaking Bad." TV's best drama has never won!

Will win: "Breaking Bad." With hysteria building in its final year, it's going to cook up a win this time.

COMEDY SERIES:

ELBER

Should win: "Louie." Life can be brutal, but also brutally funny in Louis C.K.'s hands.

Will win: "Modern Family." It's comfortably amusing and academy voters like it, they really like it.

MOORE

Should win: "Louie." This groundbreaking comedy has continued to, well, break ground.

Will win: "Modern Family." Habits are hard for Emmy to break.

ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES:

ELBER

Should win: Jon Hamm, "Mad Men." Don Draper finally confronts his pain and what he's done to others. Hamm's trophy is even more overdue.

Will win: Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards." Take that, movies! TV is better than ever, and honoring a visiting big-screen star drives the point home.

MOORE

Should win: Jon Hamm, "Mad Men." Besides all the other reasons, his Hershey bar meditation clenched it.

Will win: Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards." High-profile star in a high-profile series on a high-profile new channel.

ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES:

ELBER

Should win: Kerry Washington, "Scandal." A powerhouse performance that keeps the madcap series spinning but not out of control.

Will win: Kerry Washington, "Scandal." Don't overthink what will be an unprecedented African-American victory; she simply deserves it.

MOORE

Should win: Kerry Washington, "Scandal." Great work propelling an outrageously compelling show.

Will win: Kerry Washington, "Scandal." Emmy voters get it, and so will Kerry.

SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES:

ELBER

Should win: Bobby Cannavale, "Boardwalk Empire." Of course he can bring a fresh spin to a gangster role; what can't this actor do?

Will win: Aaron Paul, "Breaking Bad." His character's vulnerability is habit-forming, and he's poised for his third consecutive win.

MOORE

Should win: Jim Carter, "Downton Abbey." Unparalleled charm, understatement, nuance and heart.

Will win: Aaron Paul, "Breaking Bad." Yet another twist on his ever-evolving portrayal.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES:

ELBER

Should win: Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men." When the going got tougher so did her character, and Hendricks soared.

Will win: Anna Gunn, "Breaking Bad." It's the embattled Mrs. White's turn to shine.

MOORE

Should win: Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men." Joan Harris gained extra oomph this season, and so did Hendricks playing her.

Will win: Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men." Take-charge Joan will help Hendricks take this trophy.

ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES:

ELBER

Should win: Don Cheadle, "House of Lies." There was a reason for his upset Golden Globe victory over Alec Baldwin and other past winners.

Will win: Louis C.K. The sad clown made irresistible.

MOORE

Should win: Matt LeBlanc, "Episodes." He plays himself, and then some, and does it winningly.

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