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Merkel triumphs in German vote but allies crushed

Monday - 9/23/2013, 2:48am  ET

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, chairwoman of the Christian Democratic party CDU, holds a finger on her lips on the stage at the party headquarters after the national elections in Berlin Sunday, Sept. 22, 2013. Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives triumphed in Germany's election Sunday. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)

GEIR MOULSON
Associated Press

BERLIN (AP) -- Chancellor Angela Merkel led her conservatives to a stunning victory in Germany's election Sunday, a personal triumph that cements her position as Europe's most powerful leader. However, she will need to reach out to center-left rivals to form a new government after her coalition partner crashed out of Parliament.

Merkel's Union bloc scored its best result in 23 years to put her on course for a third term, winning 41.5 percent of the vote and finishing only five seats short of an absolute majority in the lower house.

The 59-year-old benefited from a strong economy and low unemployment that have helped keep her personal popularity sky-high -- a contrast with the string of leaders who have lost their jobs in other European countries since the continent's debt crisis erupted three years ago. A new coalition probably won't result in any major shifts in German policy, though it could bring a slightly softer tone to managing the crisis.

Merkel, Germany's chancellor since 2005 and the de facto leader of the European crisis response that has mixed aid with austerity, told supporters it was "a super result." She wouldn't immediately speculate about the shape of the next government, but made clear she plans to serve a full term.

"I see the next four years in front of me and I can promise that we will face many tasks, at home, in Europe and in the world," Merkel said during a television appearance with other party leaders.

Despite the scale of her win, governing isn't likely to get easier for Merkel.

Her partners of choice, the pro-business Free Democrats, won only 4.8 percent of the vote. They fell short of the 5 percent needed to win seats in Parliament for the first time in Germany's post-World War II history, paying the price for frequent governing infighting and their failure to secure tax cuts they pledged before going into government four years ago.

Merkel looks likely to end up leading either a "grand coalition" government with the center-left Social Democrats of defeated challenger Peer Steinbrueck -- reviving the alliance that ran Germany in her first term -- or, less likely, with the environmentalist Greens.

Either way, several weeks of difficult negotiations are expected.

"The ball is in Merkel's court," said Steinbrueck, a former finance minister under Merkel who has said he won't serve under her again. "She has to get herself a majority."

"Angela Merkel is stronger than ever, also in her party," said Manfred Guellner, the head of the Forsa polling agency. "But governing is going to be odd because she will have to form a 'grand coalition' although she is only a few seats away from an absolute majority."

Merkel's conservatives finished far ahead of Steinbrueck's Social Democrats, who won 25.7 percent of the vote -- not much better than the post-war low of 23 percent they hit four years ago.

Their Green allies polled a disappointing 8.4 percent, while the hard-line Left Party scored 8.6 percent. But although the three parties on the left together hold a thin parliamentary majority, there's virtually no chance of them governing together.

The Left Party includes heirs of East Germany's former communist rulers, opposes German military deployments abroad and is the only party that voted against Merkel's policies of bailing out debt-troubled European countries in exchange for reforms. The two center-left parties on Sunday renewed promises not to form an alliance with the Left.

"We did not achieve the result we wanted," Steinbrueck told supporters, insisting he wouldn't engage in "speculation" about the next government.

Merkel's conservatives, the Social Democrats and Greens "have largely similar positions" on Europe, said Oscar Gabriel, a political science professor at Stuttgart University. He noted, however, that "there are a few nuances," with the center-left parties more open to limited pooling of European countries' debt something the chancellor has refused to countenance.

A "grand coalition" might result in a somewhat greater emphasis on bolstering economic growth over the austerity that Germany has insisted on in exchange for bailing out economically weak European countries such as Greece.

During the election campaign, Merkel and Steinbrueck clashed over center-left calls for tax increases on high earners and a mandatory national minimum wage. Merkel rejected both ideas, arguing that they would hurt the economy.

All the same, a "grand coalition" is more likely to be to put together than a conservative-Green alliance, which would face wider cultural and political differences.

Green leader Juergen Trittin said of possible negotiations: "I don't think the probability of anything coming out of it is particularly high."

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