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Why DSW Shares Lost Their Footing

Tuesday - 3/19/2013, 11:55am  ET

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of footwear and accessories retailer DSW sank as low as 10% today after its quarterly results and guidance missed Wall Street expectations.

So what: The stock has rallied steadily over the past year on strong sales momentum, but a fourth-quarter miss -- adjusted EPS of $0.59 on revenue of $594.3 million versus the consensus of $0.72 and $601.8 million, respectively -- coupled with downbeat full-year guidance is forcing analysts to recalibrate their growth estimates. In fact, same-store sales in the first six weeks of 2013 actually declined by 5%, snapping the company's recent 14-quarter streak of same-store sales increases.

Now what: DSW said that it's now managing inventories for the first half of the year assuming flat same-store sales, translating into full-year EPS of $3.30-$3.40 and well below the consensus of $3.85.

"We continue to make excellent progress on our strategic initiatives, all of which are designed to enhance our shopping experience, regardless of how and where the customer chooses to shop," CEO Mick MacDonald reassured investors.

With the stock still up more than 20% from its 52-week lows and trading at a 15-plus forward P/E, however, I'd wait for even more of a pullback before buying into that bull talk.

Interested in more info on DSW? Add it to your watchlist.

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