AP National Security Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Every president since Ronald Reagan has refused to release Jonathan Pollard from prison. A CIA director once threatened to resign when Bill Clinton briefly considered freeing the convicted spy as part of Mideast peace talks. But now, in a gamble to extend negotiations that appear on the brink of collapse, the Obama administration is bringing the U.S. closer than it has been in years to granting Pollard an early release.
If Pollard's freedom leads eventually to a final peace settlement, it could mark a major victory for U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who has toiled to achieve an agreement between the Israelis and Palestinians after decades of distrust and violence. But if Pollard is freed and the talks fail, it could be a costly embarrassment.
Releasing Pollard now, just to keep Israeli-Palestinian negotiations going, "portrays a weakness on our part and a certain amount of desperation," says Aaron Miller, who was part of the U.S. negotiating team at two rounds of peace talks during the Clinton administration. "It guarantees almost nothing."
The White House insisted Tuesday that President Barack Obama has not decided on whether to release Pollard, a former U.S. Navy analyst who was sentenced to life in prison nearly 30 years ago for selling classified military documents to the Israeli government. Kerry, asked about prospects for Pollard's release, told reporters at a NATO meeting in Brussels, "There is no agreement, at this point in time, regarding anyone or any specific steps."
"There are a lot of different possibilities in play," Kerry said. He added: "All I can tell you is that we are continuing, even now as I am standing up here speaking, to be engaged with both parties to find the best way forward."
But Kerry abruptly canceled plans to meet Wednesday with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, an indication that the talks are flailing as they approach an end-of-April deadline for a decision on whether to continue.
Israel has for years pushed for Pollard to be freed, and gave him citizenship in the late 1990s. His release now could be used to give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu political cover from fallout at home in exchange for concessions that could be made to the Palestinians to keep the talks going.
People briefed on the matter said those concessions could include Israel freeing Palestinian prisoners who are considered terrorists by many Israelis. The conditions also might require Israel to freeze construction in settlements in disputed territory and to continue in the negotiations, according to two people, both of whom spoke only on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the sensitive diplomacy by name. Palestinian leaders have balked at proposals that would have them relinquish much of Jerusalem and recognize Israel as a Jewish state.
Though Pollard is serving a life sentence, he becomes eligible for parole in November 2015. But the U.S. government could object to letting him go.
Pollard has been serving his sentence at a medium-security prison in Butner, N.C., where inmates are awakened at 6 a.m. and spend their days performing various jobs. They have limited telephone access and are granted supervised recreation time. He is believed to be in poor health.
For the most part, U.S. military and intelligence officials have strongly opposed Pollard's release.
William Cohen, who served as defense secretary from 1997-2001 and was a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee when Pollard was convicted, said he sees no sense in even considering Pollard's release as part of the peace negotiations.
"I don't understand why he has been injected into the Middle East peace process," Cohen said in a telephone interview. "It makes it look as if he's being used as a bargaining chip," and if that is the case, it's not clear what the U.S. stands to gain from such a deal, Cohen added.
The Pentagon, the CIA, three other former secretaries of defense, three former secretaries of state, a former CIA chief, a former director of national intelligence and the former chief Mideast envoy either didn't respond to messages seeking comment or declined to comment for this story.
Abbe Lowell, a Washington lawyer who has represented clients charged under the Espionage Act, said the facts of Pollard's case could have supported a shorter sentence, and he said that Pollard "has now served longer than anyone in similar circumstances."
"If the president wants to address this issue -- whether because the time has come anyway or as part of a larger Middle East peace initiative -- he has the absolute power to do so as the head of the government by commuting Mr. Pollard's sentence to time served," Lowell said in an email.